The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United
States: Priorities for Intervention
OHNs may find this publication of use when writing justification for influenza immunization programs.
Martin I. Meltzer, Nancy J. Cox, and Keiji Fukuda
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Abstract: We estimated the possible effects of the next influenza
pandemic in the United States and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based
interventions. Using death rates, hospitalization data, and outpatient visits, we
estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths; 314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations; 18 to 42 million
outpatient visits; and 20 to 47 million additional illnesses. Patients at high risk (15%
of the population) would account for approximately 84% of all deaths. The estimated
economic impact would be US$71.3 to $166.5 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and
society. At $21 per vaccinee, we project a net savings to society if persons in all age
groups are vaccinated. At $62 per vaccinee and at gross attack rates of 25%, we project
net losses if persons not at high risk for complications are vaccinated. Vaccinating 60%
of the population would generate the highest economic returns but may not be possible
within the time required for vaccine effectiveness, especially if two doses of vaccine are
required.