Canadian Study Documents that New Scientific System Accurately Predicts Spread of H1N1
A new
scientific system developed by a St. Michael's Hospital physician,
designed to rapidly evaluate the world's air traffic patterns,
accurately predicted how the H1N1 virus would spread around the
world, according to research published in the New
England Journal of Medicine today.
St.
Michael's Hospital scientist and infectious disease physician Dr.
Kamran Khan and colleagues analyzed the flight itineraries of the
more than 2.3 million passengers departing Mexico on commercial
flights during the months of March and April to predict the spread of
H1N1. The findings show the international destinations of air
travelers leaving Mexico were strongly associated with confirmed
importations of the H1N1 virus around the world.
"The
relationship between air travel and the spread of H1N1 is intuitive,"
said Dr. Khan. "However, for the first time, we can quickly
integrate information about worldwide air traffic patterns with
information about global infectious disease threats. What this means
is that cities and countries around the world can now respond to news
of a threat earlier and more intelligently than ever before."
The system,
developed by Dr. Khan and supported by the Public Health Agency of
Canada and the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, is
known as The BIO.DIASPORA Project. The Project, led by Dr. Khan, was
created in response to the Toronto SARS crisis in 2003 to better
understand the global airline transportation network and its
relationship to the spread of emerging infectious diseases.
"While
it is generally understood that air travel can transport infectious
diseases around the world, the BIO.DIASPORA Project, has for the
first time, provided a very accurate picture of not only where
diseases will travel, but how often and when," said Dr. Michael
Gardam, director of infectious diseases prevention and control for
the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion. "This
work provides the world with a potent early warning system for
emerging infectious diseases."
Just prior
to the onset of the H1N1 epidemic, Dr. Khan and his colleagues
submitted a 122-page report to the Public Health Agency of Canada
entitled The BIO.DIASPORA Project: An Analysis of Canada's
Vulnerability to Emerging Infectious Disease Threats via the Global
Airline Transportation Network. Key findings from this report
include:
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Toronto,
Vancouver and Montreal - in that order - are Canada's most
vulnerable domestic points to global infectious disease threats.
These three cities receive more than 13 million international
passengers from around the world every year.
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Sixty
per cent of all passengers traveling to Canada from developing areas
of the world use multiple flights to reach their destination. About
half of these passengers - or 1.4 million people every year -
make flight connections into Canada through just nine cities: London
(UK), Hong Kong, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Paris, Miami, Amsterdam, New York
City and Chicago. The airports in these cities represent potential
sites for screening passengers to Canada during international
epidemics.
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Four
developing countries - China, Mexico, India and the Philippines -
and nine industrialized countries - the U.S., the U.K., France,
Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan -
are the source of 80% of Canada's international air traffic. These
are important locations from which future infectious disease threats
may originate or pass through en route to Canada. Canada should
consider working with these countries to tackle shared risks of
global infectious diseases.
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The
emergence and local spread of infectious diseases is dependent on
various factors, which when combined with high volumes of commercial
air traffic may lead to global dissemination. These factors include
but are not limited to:
-
poverty
-
high
population density
-
close
human-animal interaction
-
poorly
developed infectious disease surveillance systems
-
limited
health-care resources
-
health-care
workforce shortage
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Considering
the realities of living in a highly interconnected world, Canada
will need to play a larger role in detecting and controlling
infectious disease threats outside of its borders as a way to
protect the health of Canadians.
For
more information on The BIO.DIASPORA Project and access to the full
report visit www.biodiaspora.com
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